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fireflies analysis
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by
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Piter
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PITER                             2019-11-14 00:39
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dustin, I KNOW THAT THERE ARE 16 POSSIBILITIES, BUT I'VE CREATED ONLY 4 OF THEM. I THINK IT IS ONLY IMPORTANT HOW FIREFLIES ARE POSITIONED TOWARDS EACH OTHER. YOU NEVER KNOW WHICH DIRECTION THEY'RE FACING DURING GAME.   
  
ACCORDING TO MY TESTS (AND RESULTS AREN'T 100% ERROR PROOF) I THINK THAT BIGGEST POSSIBILITY OF SAFE PASSING IS WHEN THE FLIES ARE INITIALLY FACING OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS (U-D). THE GAP IS THEN USUALLY TWO SQUARES. NOT ALWAYS.

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DUSTIN                            2019-11-14 07:57
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piter - YES, THAT'S TRUE. IF THE FIREFLIES FACE OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS, THEN IT WILL ALWAYS BE THE RIGHT FIREFLY WHO FOLLOWS ROCKFORD FIRST. ABOUT THE TIMING, THERE ARE THREE POSSIBILITIES.  
1. THE RIGHT FIREFLY FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY, SO THERE WILL BE 1 GAP. THIS IS THE CASE IF IT FACES LEFT OR UP THE MOMENT ROCKFORD IS BETWEEN THE FLIES. SO THE PROPABILITY IS 50%.  
2. IF THE RIGHT FFLY FACES DOWN WHEN ROCKFORD IS BETWEEN THE FLIES, IT FOLLOWS ONE FRAME LATER, SO 2 GAPS, PROPABILITY 25%.  
3. IF IT FACES RIGHT, IT WILL FOLLOW AFTER TWO MORE FRAMES, SO 3 GAPS, PROPABILITY 25%.  
  
IN ANY OTHER SCENARIO, THE PLAYER DOES NOT KNOW FOR SURE WHICH FIREFLY WILL FOLLOW HIM, SO ALL DEPENDS ON LUCK/INSANELY QUICK REACTION.  SO THE "UD" CASE IS DEFINITELY MOST PREDICTABLE AND BEST FOR THE PLAYER!